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Which company has best AI model end of 2026?

Which company owns the top-ranked AI model on the LMArena text leaderboard at the end of 2026? Polymarket lists 15 companies as separate markets, and the market is scheduled to end on 2026-12-31.

Share

Current Probability

Anthropic

47%

Market-implied probability

  • 24 hours no change

Source

Single source

Key facts

Ends
December 31, 2026
Volume
2.3M

Probability History

Outcomes Market-implied probability

  1. Anthropic 47% 24 hours: no change
  2. Google 44% 24 hours: up 3 pts
  3. OpenAI 5% 24 hours: no change
  4. Meta 1% 24 hours: no change
  5. xAI 1% 24 hours: no change
See all 15
  1. Alibaba <1% 24 hours: no change
  2. Mistral <1% 24 hours: down 2 pts
  3. DeepSeek <1% 24 hours: no change
  4. Moonshot <1% 24 hours: no change
  5. Z.ai <1% 24 hours: no change
  6. Meituan <1% 24 hours: no change
  7. Microsoft <1% 24 hours: no change
  8. Amazon <1% 24 hours: no change
  9. Baidu <1% 24 hours: no change
  10. ByteDance <1% 24 hours: no change

Each option is priced on its own, so these may not add up to 100%.

What the Market Thinks

Market-implied probabilities for each company to own the top-ranked model on the LMArena text leaderboard at the end of 2026, taken from Polymarket, where every company trades as its own market. Prices are independent, so they may not add up to 100%.

How It Resolves

This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.

Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.

Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.

The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.

Resolution source: LMArena text leaderboard (style control off)

Expected resolution: December 31, 2026