Subscribe on YouTube
Something's always on the line.
Business

How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?

How many Fed rate cuts in 2026. Polymarket lists 13 possible outcomes. The market is scheduled to end on 2027-01-01.

Share

Current Probability

0 (0 bps)

96%

Market-implied probability

  • 24 hours no change

Source

Single source

Key facts

Ends
December 31, 2026
Volume
54M

Probability History

Outcomes Market-implied probability

  1. 0 (0 bps) 96% 24 hours: no change
  2. 1 (25 bps) 2% 24 hours: no change
  3. 2 (50 bps) <1% 24 hours: no change
  4. 3 (75 bps) <1% 24 hours: no change
  5. 4 (100 bps) <1% 24 hours: no change
See all 13
  1. 5 (125 bps) <1% 24 hours: no change
  2. 6 (150 bps) <1% 24 hours: no change
  3. 7 (175 bps) <1% 24 hours: no change
  4. 8 (200 bps) <1% 24 hours: no change
  5. 9 (225 bps) <1% 24 hours: no change
  6. 10 (250 bps) <1% 24 hours: no change
  7. 11 (275 bps) <1% 24 hours: no change
  8. 12+ (300+ bps) <1% 24 hours: no change

Each option is priced on its own, so these may not add up to 100%.

How It Resolves

This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).

Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.

For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).

This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.

Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.

The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.

Resolution source: Polymarket

Expected resolution: December 31, 2026