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Fed Decision in December?

Fed Decision in December? Where the market stands, how it has moved and how this market resolves.

25 bps increase 76% Market-implied probability up 1 pts

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Editorial analysis

The Sweat's View

This market comes down to the gap between what the committee projected and what the labor market is now showing. The projections and minutes lean toward another increase by year end, and December is the only meeting left that comes with new projections. A weak run of jobs data, or an October move that pulls the next step forward, would change the picture. Treat the number as the market's read of the committee's stated direction, not as a decision already made.

Market Split

74%
  • 25 bps increase74%
  • No change22%
  • All others4%

Each option is priced on its own, so shares are scaled to add up to 100%.

The Market in Brief

25 bps increase leads at 76%, followed by No change at 23% and 50+ bps increase at 3%. 5 outcomes are listed in total. The market has 3M in volume. It is expected to resolve on December 9, 2026.

The Case For

  • A 25 bps increase, the market's leading outcome, is what the Fed signaled in September. The minutes say most participants expected another increase to be appropriate by year end, and the median projection for end-2026 is one more quarter-point increase. Scotsman Guide
  • Inflation is still well above target. August PCE inflation was 3.4% headline and 3.0% core, below consensus forecasts of 3.7% and 3.3% but far from the 2 percent goal. Scotsman Guide

The Case Against

  • Employers added only 29,000 jobs in September, well below forecasts above 80,000. Prior months were revised down by 60,000 in total. Scotsman Guide
  • The path is not unanimous. Two of 18 participants projected no change to the rate by year end, and the Fed raised rates only on September 16, so the committee may wait to see how that increase works through. Federal Reserve, Summary of Economic Projections

What to Watch

  • The October FOMC meeting October 27, 2026 A second increase in October would change the December picture. The meeting has no new projections. Source
  • The December FOMC decision December 8, 2026 The two-day meeting on December 8 and 9 includes updated projections. Source
  • The November jobs report December 3, 2026 The BLS releases November data on December 4, five days before the decision. October data comes out on November 6. Source

Current Probability

25 bps increase

76%

Market-implied probability

  • 24 hours up 1 pts
  • 7 days no change

Source

Single source

Key facts

Ends
December 9, 2026 59 days left
Volume
3M

Probability History

Outcomes Market-implied probability

  1. 25 bps increase 76% 24 hours: up 1 pts
  2. No change 23% 24 hours: no change
  3. 50+ bps increase 3% 24 hours: no change
  4. 25 bps decrease 1% 24 hours: no change
  5. 50+ bps decrease <1% 24 hours: no change

Each option is priced on its own, so these may not add up to 100%.

How It Resolves

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.

This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.

If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)

The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.

The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.

This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.

Resolution source: Polymarket

Expected resolution: December 9, 2026