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Highest grossing movie in 2026?

Highest grossing movie in 2026? Where the market stands, how it has moved and how this market resolves.

Spider-Man: Brand New Day 96% Market-implied probability no change

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Editorial analysis

The Sweat's View

This market resolves on domestic calendar-year gross, not worldwide, and on that measure Spider-Man: Brand New Day is already far ahead. The number reflects a film with a record opening and a lead of more than $330 million over the next title, with only a December release left to challenge it. What could change it is a late-year release performing far above anything this year so far, or a data issue with Box Office Mojo's calendar figures. Treat the number as the state of the 2026 chart today, not a forecast by The Sweat.

Market Split

95%
  • Spider-Man: Brand New Day95%
  • Avengers: Doomsday5%
  • All others<1%

Each option is priced on its own, so shares are scaled to add up to 100%.

The Market in Brief

Spider-Man: Brand New Day leads at 96%, followed by Avengers: Doomsday at 5% and Dune: Messiah at <1%. 14 outcomes are listed in total. The market has 17.6M in volume. It is expected to resolve on January 7, 2027.

The Case For

  • Spider-Man: Brand New Day, the market's leading outcome, already tops the 2026 domestic chart at $955.2 million. It was released in the US on July 31, 2026, and the next film on the list, The Odyssey, stands at $620.9 million. Box Office Mojo
  • It opened to $360.1 million over the weekend ending August 2, 2026, the largest domestic opening on record, ahead of Avengers: Endgame's $357.1 million. Wikipedia: List of 2026 box office number-one films in the United States

The Case Against

  • Avengers: Doomsday, the main rival, is scheduled for December 18, 2026, which leaves about two weeks of 2026 playing time. It would need to out-gross a film that has already passed $955 million domestically. AOL (Avengers: Doomsday release date report)
  • Doomsday is also expected to face limits on premium screens. Dune: Part Three, released the same day, has an exclusive IMAX window for the two films' opening weekend, according to AOL's reporting. AOL (Avengers: Doomsday IMAX report)

What to Watch

  • Avengers: Doomsday release December 17, 2026 The film opens in the final two weeks of the year. A report from John Campea discussed moving it up a week to December 11, but nothing official has been announced. Source
  • Final 2026 calendar-year gross January 6, 2027 The market resolves on the 2026 domestic calendar gross shown on Box Office Mojo once December 31 data is available. A replacement source is chosen if no final data exists by January 7, 2027. Source

Current Probability

Spider-Man: Brand New Day

96%

Market-implied probability

  • 24 hours no change

Source

Single source

Key facts

Ends
January 7, 2027 91 days left
Volume
17.6M

Probability History

Outcomes Market-implied probability

  1. Spider-Man: Brand New Day 96% 24 hours: no change
  2. Avengers: Doomsday 5% 24 hours: up 1 pts
  3. Dune: Messiah <1% 24 hours: no change
  4. Wicked: For Good <1% 24 hours: no change
  5. Wuthering Heights <1% 24 hours: no change
See all 14
  1. Scream 7 <1% 24 hours: no change
  2. Michael <1% 24 hours: no change
  3. Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu <1% 24 hours: no change
  4. Toy Story 5 <1% 24 hours: no change
  5. The Odyssey <1% 24 hours: no change
  6. The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping <1% 24 hours: no change
  7. Project Hail Mary <1% 24 hours: no change
  8. The Super Mario Galaxy Movie <1% 24 hours: no change
  9. Jumanji 3 <1% 24 hours: no change

Each option is priced on its own, so these may not add up to 100%.

How It Resolves

This market will resolve according to the title of the film with the highest 2026 gross according to the "Gross" column on https://www.boxofficemojo.com/year/2026/?grossesOption=calendarGrosses once data for December 31 is made available.

Note: This market is about the movie's domestic calendar gross in 2026 - dates outside of 2026 will not count toward this movie's gross.

In the event of an exact tie the film that comes first alphabetically will be considered the winner.

If there is no final data available by January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.

Resolution source: Polymarket

Expected resolution: January 7, 2027