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Entertainment

Which movie has biggest opening weekend in 2026?

Which movie has biggest opening weekend in 2026? Where the market stands, how it has moved and how this market resolves.

Spider-Man: Brand New Day 53% Market-implied probability down 4 pts

Share

Market Split

53%
  • Spider-Man: Brand New Day53%
  • Avengers: Doomsday47%
  • All others<1%

Each option is priced on its own, so shares are scaled to add up to 100%.

How the Market Has Moved

  • Oct 8 Spider-Man: Brand New Day fell 11 points, from 63% to 52%.
  • Oct 8 Avengers: Doomsday rose 9 points, from 37% to 46%.

The Market in Brief

Spider-Man: Brand New Day leads at 53%, followed by Avengers: Doomsday at 47% and Dune: Messiah at <1%. 4 outcomes are listed in total. The market has 976.7K in volume. It is expected to resolve on January 31, 2027.

Current Probability

Spider-Man: Brand New Day

53%

Market-implied probability

  • 24 hours down 4 pts

Source

Single source

Key facts

Ends
January 31, 2027 115 days left
Volume
976.7K

Probability History

Outcomes Market-implied probability

  1. Spider-Man: Brand New Day 53% 24 hours: down 4 pts
  2. Avengers: Doomsday 47% 24 hours: up 3 pts
  3. Dune: Messiah <1% 24 hours: no change
  4. The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping <1% 24 hours: no change

Each option is priced on its own, so these may not add up to 100%.

How It Resolves

This market will resolve according to the title of the movie which grosses more domestically on its opening weekend than any other movie in 2026. The “Weekend Box Office Performance” table on the page for the relevant movie on https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/year/2026 will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend are final (i.e. not studio estimates).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses more on its 3-day domestic opening weekend than any other movie in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.

Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's 3-day opening weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday), regardless of whether the movie has a 4 or 5-day opening weekend.

If another movie's opening weekend box office performance surpasses that of the named movie after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No".

If this movie's opening weekend box office performance ties with any other's, the movie whose title comes first in alphabetical order will win.

If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.

Resolution source: Polymarket

Expected resolution: January 31, 2027