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Which movie has biggest opening weekend in 2026?

Which movie has biggest opening weekend in 2026? Where the market stands, how it has moved and how this market resolves.

Spider-Man: Brand New Day 53% Market-implied probability down 3 pts

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Editorial analysis

The Sweat's View

The record is already set, which is why this market is about whether anything still to come can beat $360.1 million, not about who opens biggest from here. The only visible challenger is Avengers: Doomsday in December, so the number mostly measures how likely a new release is to top the largest opening in history. What could move it is tracking for Doomsday, any change to its release date, and its screen access. Treat the number as where the market stands today, not a forecast by The Sweat.

How the Market Has Moved

  • Oct 8 Spider-Man: Brand New Day fell 11 points, from 63% to 52%.
  • Oct 8 Avengers: Doomsday rose 9 points, from 37% to 46%.

The Case For

The Case Against

  • Avengers: Doomsday, the main rival, opens December 18, 2026, and has not yet been released. Survey research by Greenlight Analytics put audience interest in it at 57%, ahead of Dune: Part Three at 41%. AOL (Avengers: Doomsday IMAX report)
  • Doomsday would face limited IMAX access on its opening weekend, because Dune: Part Three has an exclusive IMAX window the same weekend. The same report says the survey data predate Dune's latest trailer. AOL (Avengers: Doomsday IMAX report)

What to Watch

  • Avengers: Doomsday opening weekend December 19, 2026 Doomsday is set to open December 18, so its first three-day total would be reported around December 20 to 21. It would need to exceed $360.1 million to overtake Spider-Man. No firm tracking range has been published yet. Source
  • Final resolution data January 30, 2027 If no final data is available by January 31, 2027, another credible source is chosen. Source

Current Probability

Spider-Man: Brand New Day

53%

Market-implied probability

  • 24 hours down 3 pts

Stale

Source

Single source

Key facts

Ends
January 31, 2027 115 days left
Volume
976.7K

Probability History

Outcomes Market-implied probability

  1. Spider-Man: Brand New Day 53% 24 hours: down 3 pts
  2. Avengers: Doomsday 47% 24 hours: up 2 pts
  3. Dune: Messiah <1% 24 hours: no change
  4. The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping <1% 24 hours: no change

Each option is priced on its own, so these may not add up to 100%.

How It Resolves

This market will resolve according to the title of the movie which grosses more domestically on its opening weekend than any other movie in 2026. The “Weekend Box Office Performance” table on the page for the relevant movie on https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/year/2026 will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend are final (i.e. not studio estimates).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses more on its 3-day domestic opening weekend than any other movie in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.

Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's 3-day opening weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday), regardless of whether the movie has a 4 or 5-day opening weekend.

If another movie's opening weekend box office performance surpasses that of the named movie after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No".

If this movie's opening weekend box office performance ties with any other's, the movie whose title comes first in alphabetical order will win.

If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.

Resolution source: Polymarket

Expected resolution: January 31, 2027