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Politics

Texas Senate Election Winner

Texas Senate Election Winner. Where the market stands, how it has moved and how this market resolves.

James Talarico (D) 63% Market-implied probability down 1 pts

Share

Market Split

63%
  • Yes63%
  • No38%

Each option is priced on its own, so shares are scaled to add up to 100%.

The Market in Brief

The market currently puts this at 63%. The market has 3M in volume. It is expected to resolve on November 3, 2026.

This page describes what the market on Polymarket currently implies. It is not a forecast by The Sweat.

Current Probability

James Talarico (D)

63%

Market-implied probability

  • 24 hours down 1 pts

Source

Single source

Key facts

Ends
November 3, 2026 26 days left
Volume
3M

Probability History

Outcomes Market-implied probability

  1. James Talarico (D) 63% 24 hours: down 1 pts
  2. Ken Paxton (R) 38% 24 hours: up 1 pts

Each option is priced on its own, so these may not add up to 100%.

How It Resolves

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Texas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.

A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.

Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.

The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

Resolution source: Polymarket

Expected resolution: November 3, 2026