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Politics

Brazil Presidential Election

Brazil Presidential Election. Where the market stands, how it has moved and how this market resolves.

Flávio Bolsonaro 86% Market-implied probability down 1 pts

Share

Market Split

86%
  • Yes86%
  • No14%

Each option is priced on its own, so shares are scaled to add up to 100%.

The Market in Brief

The market currently puts this at 86%. The market has 42.5M in volume. It is expected to resolve on October 25, 2026.

This page describes what the market on Polymarket currently implies. It is not a forecast by The Sweat.

Current Probability

Flávio Bolsonaro

86%

Market-implied probability

  • 24 hours down 1 pts

Source

Single source

Key facts

Ends
October 25, 2026 13 days left
Volume
42.5M

Probability History

Outcomes Market-implied probability

  1. Flávio Bolsonaro 86% 24 hours: down 1 pts
  2. Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 14% 24 hours: up 1 pts

Each option is priced on its own, so these may not add up to 100%.

How It Resolves

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election.

This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).

Resolution source: Polymarket

Expected resolution: October 25, 2026