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Politics

Next French Presidential Election

Next French Presidential Election. Polymarket lists 42 possible outcomes. The market is scheduled to end on 2027-04-19.

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Current Probability

Marine Le Pen

42%

Market-implied probability

  • 24 hours down 1 pts

Source

Single source

Key facts

Ends
April 18, 2027
Volume
147.4M

This page describes what the market on Polymarket currently implies. It is not a forecast by The Sweat.

Probability History

Outcomes Market-implied probability

  1. Marine Le Pen 42% 24 hours: down 1 pts
  2. Édouard Philippe 22% 24 hours: up 4 pts
  3. David Lisnard 13% 24 hours: no change
  4. Jean-Luc Mélenchon 13% 24 hours: no change
  5. François Hollande 3% 24 hours: no change
See all 42
  1. Gabriel Attal 2% 24 hours: down 1 pts
  2. Raphaël Glucksmann 1% 24 hours: no change
  3. Bruno Retailleau 1% 24 hours: no change
  4. Sarah Knafo 1% 24 hours: no change
  5. Jordan Bardella <1% 24 hours: no change
  6. Éric Zemmour <1% 24 hours: no change
  7. Dominique de Villepin <1% 24 hours: down 1 pts
  8. Christine Lagarde <1% 24 hours: no change
  9. Sébastien Lecornu <1% 24 hours: no change
  10. François Ruffin <1% 24 hours: no change
  11. Marine Tondelier <1% 24 hours: no change
  12. Olivier Faure <1% 24 hours: no change
  13. Karim Bouamrane <1% 24 hours: no change
  14. Ségolène Royal <1% 24 hours: no change
  15. Jean Castex <1% 24 hours: no change
  16. Xavier Bertrand <1% 24 hours: no change
  17. Laurent Wauquiez <1% 24 hours: no change
  18. Fabien Roussel <1% 24 hours: no change
  19. François Asselineau <1% 24 hours: no change
  20. Clémentine Autain <1% 24 hours: no change
  21. Nicolas Dupont-Aignan <1% 24 hours: no change
  22. Michel Barnier <1% 24 hours: no change
  23. Valérie Pécresse <1% 24 hours: no change
  24. François Bayrou <1% 24 hours: no change
  25. Élisabeth Borne <1% 24 hours: no change
  26. Yaël Braun-Pivet <1% 24 hours: no change
  27. Gérald Darmanin <1% 24 hours: no change
  28. Carole Delga <1% 24 hours: no change
  29. Bernard Cazeneuve <1% 24 hours: no change
  30. Manuel Bompard <1% 24 hours: no change
  31. Mathilde Panot <1% 24 hours: no change
  32. Juan Branco <1% 24 hours: no change
  33. Clémence Guetté <1% 24 hours: no change
  34. Lucie Castets <1% 24 hours: no change
  35. Yannick Jadot <1% 24 hours: no change
  36. François Baroin <1% 24 hours: no change
  37. Marion Maréchal <1% 24 hours: no change

Each option is priced on its own, so these may not add up to 100%.

How It Resolves

The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier.

The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.

This market includes any potential second round. If, for any reason, the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).

Resolution source: Polymarket

Expected resolution: April 18, 2027