Subscribe on YouTube
Something's always on the line.
Politics

Next Prime Minister of Sweden

Next Prime Minister of Sweden. Where the market stands, how it has moved and how this market resolves.

Magdalena Andersson 72% Market-implied probability no change

Share

Market Split

72%
  • Magdalena Andersson72%
  • Ulf Kristersson24%
  • All others4%

Each option is priced on its own, so shares are scaled to add up to 100%.

How the Market Has Moved

  • Oct 25 Ulf Kristersson rose 3 points, from 18% to 21%.
  • Oct 25 Magdalena Andersson fell 3 points, from 75% to 72%.

The Market in Brief

Magdalena Andersson leads at 72%, followed by Ulf Kristersson at 24% and Ebba Busch at 3%. 10 outcomes are listed in total. The market has 10.5M in volume. It is expected to resolve on June 30, 2027.

This page describes what the market on Polymarket currently implies. It is not a forecast by The Sweat.

Current Probability

Magdalena Andersson

72%

Market-implied probability

  • 24 hours no change
  • 7 days down 5 pts

Source

Single source

Key facts

Ends
June 30, 2027 247 days left
Volume
10.5M

Probability History

Outcomes Market-implied probability

  1. Magdalena Andersson 72% 24 hours: no change
  2. Ulf Kristersson 24% 24 hours: up 2 pts
  3. Ebba Busch 3% 24 hours: no change
  4. Elisabeth Thand Ringqvist <1% 24 hours: no change
  5. Jimmie Åkesson <1% 24 hours: no change
See all 10
  1. Simona Mohamsson <1% 24 hours: no change
  2. Anna-Karin Hatt <1% 24 hours: no change
  3. Nooshi Dadgostar <1% 24 hours: no change
  4. Amanda Lind <1% 24 hours: no change
  5. Daniel Helldén <1% 24 hours: no change

Each option is priced on its own, so these may not add up to 100%.

How It Resolves

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026.

This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed and assumes office as Prime Minister of Sweden following the next parliamentary election.

To count for resolution, the individual must officially assume office. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market.

If no such Prime Minister assumes office by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Sweden; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Resolution source: Polymarket

Expected resolution: June 30, 2027