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EPL: 2027 Champion

EPL: 2027 Champion. Where the market stands, how it has moved and how this market resolves.

Arsenal 62% Market-implied probability up 1 pts

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Editorial analysis

The Sweat's View

The market favours the defending champions, but the table shows City ahead by three points after five matches. A 62% price for Arsenal puts more weight on last season and the squad than on the first five matches, which is reasonable this early. The next two weekends decide whether the three-point gap grows or closes. Over a 38-match season, early points matter less than who is still level in spring.

Market Split

62%
  • Arsenal62%
  • Manchester City20%
  • All others19%

Each option is priced on its own, so shares are scaled to add up to 100%.

The Market in Brief

Arsenal leads at 62%, followed by Manchester City at 20% and Liverpool at 7%. 20 outcomes are listed in total. The market has 21.4M in volume. It is expected to resolve on June 14, 2027.

The Case For

  • Arsenal, the market's leading outcome, are the defending champions. They were crowned on May 24, 2026, their first league title in 22 years, with City dropping points in draws at Everton and Bournemouth. Wikipedia, 2025-26 Premier League
  • They are second after five matches with 12 points and a +4 goal difference, three behind Manchester City. They also opened their Champions League campaign with a 1-0 win at Napoli on September 9. Sky Sports / UEFA

The Case Against

  • Manchester City lead the table with 15 points from five wins and a +8 goal difference. Arsenal lost one of their first five matches. Sky Sports
  • It is early. Each side has played five of 38 matches, and the season runs to May 30, 2027. City also beat Manchester United 1-0 at Old Trafford on September 13 and won 5-3 against Sunderland on September 20. Wikipedia, 2026-27 Premier League

What to Watch

  • Arsenal v Leeds United October 9, 2026 Arsenal host Leeds at 12:30pm on Saturday, October 10, after the international break. Source
  • Liverpool v Manchester City October 10, 2026 City travel to Anfield on Sunday, October 11 (4:30pm). The result affects the gap between City and Arsenal. Source

Current Probability

Arsenal

62%

Market-implied probability

  • 24 hours up 1 pts

Source

Single source

Key facts

Ends
June 14, 2027 249 days left
Volume
21.4M

Probability History

Outcomes Market-implied probability

  1. Arsenal 62% 24 hours: up 1 pts
  2. Manchester City 20% 24 hours: no change
  3. Liverpool 7% 24 hours: no change
  4. Chelsea 4% 24 hours: no change
  5. Brighton 2% 24 hours: no change
See all 20
  1. Manchester United 2% 24 hours: no change
  2. Brentford <1% 24 hours: no change
  3. Hull City <1% 24 hours: no change
  4. Aston Villa <1% 24 hours: no change
  5. Tottenham <1% 24 hours: no change
  6. Leeds United <1% 24 hours: no change
  7. Newcastle United <1% 24 hours: no change
  8. Bournemouth <1% 24 hours: no change
  9. Crystal Palace <1% 24 hours: no change
  10. Everton <1% 24 hours: no change
  11. Fulham <1% 24 hours: no change
  12. Nottingham Forest <1% 24 hours: no change
  13. Sunderland <1% 24 hours: no change
  14. Coventry City <1% 24 hours: no change
  15. Ipswich Town <1% 24 hours: no change

Each option is priced on its own, so these may not add up to 100%.

How It Resolves

This market will resolve according to the team that wins the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship.

If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed team to win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship per the rules of English Premier League (EPL) (e.g., they are eliminated in the playoffs), the corresponding market will resolve to "No".

If the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) season is cancelled, postponed after June 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to "Other".

The primary resolution source will be official information from English Premier League (EPL); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Resolution source: Polymarket

Expected resolution: June 14, 2027