Fed Decision in October?
Fed Decision in October? Where the market stands, how it has moved and how this market resolves.
No change 80% Market-implied probability down 4 pts
Editorial analysis
The Sweat's View
The numbers behind this market agree with each other: weak September payrolls, a low probability of an October increase, and a committee that has just acted. The more open question is December. The minutes point to another increase by year end and markets price it at 84%, so a hold in October may only move the decision later. A No change result here would not mean the Fed is done. It would mean the next move waits for the meeting that comes with new projections.
Market Split
- No change80%
- 25 bps increase20%
- All others1%
Each option is priced on its own, so shares are scaled to add up to 100%.
The Market in Brief
No change leads at 80%, followed by 25 bps increase at 20% and 25 bps decrease at <1%. 5 outcomes are listed in total. The market has 33.2M in volume. It is expected to resolve on October 28, 2026.
The Case For
- Hiring cooled. Employers added 29,000 jobs in September, well below forecasts above 80,000, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on October 2. Scotsman Guide
- Pricing points to a hold. As of October 7, CME FedWatch put the chance of an October rate increase at 17%. Scotsman Guide
The Case Against
- The Fed has just moved. On September 16 it raised its target range by a quarter point to 3-3/4 to 4 percent on a 12-0 vote, saying inflation remains elevated. Federal Reserve
- Most September participants saw more tightening as likely. The minutes say another increase would likely be appropriate by year end, and CME FedWatch put a December increase at 84% as of October 7. Scotsman Guide
What to Watch
- The October FOMC decision October 27, 2026 The two-day meeting runs October 27 and 28. It does not include a Summary of Economic Projections, so there is no new dot plot. Source
- The December meeting December 8, 2026 The meeting on December 8 and 9 includes new projections, and it is where markets currently expect the next increase. Source
Current Probability
No change
80%
Market-implied probability
- 24 hours down 4 pts
- 7 days down 4 pts
Source
Single source
Key facts
- Ends
- October 28, 2026 17 days left
- Volume
- 33.2M
Probability History
Not enough history yet
Showing the most recent period
Outcomes Market-implied probability
- No change 80% 24 hours: down 4 pts
- 25 bps increase 20% 24 hours: up 3 pts
- 25 bps decrease <1% 24 hours: no change
- 50+ bps increase <1% 24 hours: no change
- 50+ bps decrease <1% 24 hours: no change
Each option is priced on its own, so these may not add up to 100%.
How It Resolves
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Resolution source: Polymarket
Expected resolution: October 28, 2026
