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NBA: 2026-27 Rookie of the Year

NBA: 2026-27 Rookie of the Year. Where the market stands, how it has moved and how this market resolves.

Cameron Boozer 35% Market-implied probability up 2 pts

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Editorial analysis

The Sweat's View

The market data on this page is not usable, so The Sweat's reading is of the real race instead. Boozer is the most common choice among writers because of his readiness and his role in Memphis, but Peterson, Wilson, Dybantsa and Acuff each have a plausible case, and the award usually follows opportunity and scoring volume. The first months of the season will say more than any preseason view.

Market Split

32%
  • Cameron Boozer32%
  • Caleb Wilson19%
  • All others49%

Each option is priced on its own, so shares are scaled to add up to 100%.

The Market in Brief

Cameron Boozer leads at 35%, followed by Caleb Wilson at 21% and Darryn Peterson at 14%. 30 outcomes are listed in total. The market has 8M in volume. It is expected to resolve on April 30, 2027.

The Case For

  • Cameron Boozer, selected third by Memphis, is the most frequently named favourite. On October 8 an NBC Sports panel called him the most NBA-ready of the top selections, with an immediate path to the ball, and in June four of eight CBS Sports experts chose him. NBC Sports via Yahoo Sports
  • The CBS Sports experts expected him to be Memphis's primary offensive option, and voters tend to reward counting statistics. In Memphis's preseason game he scored 16 points with 6 rebounds. CBS Sports

The Case Against

  • The class is deep. Washington took AJ Dybantsa first, Utah took Darryn Peterson second, Chicago took Caleb Wilson fourth and the Clippers took Keaton Wagler fifth. NBA.com
  • Rivals have clear cases. Three CBS Sports experts picked Dybantsa as the best scorer and overall talent, though he shares the ball with veterans, and Sacramento's Darius Acuff Jr. was picked by one expert as likely to run the offence immediately. CBS Sports

What to Watch

  • Early-season minutes and usage Role matters as much as talent for this award. Starting spots and shot volume for Boozer, Peterson, Wilson, Dybantsa and Acuff in the first weeks of the season will show who has the opening. Source
  • Injuries A rookie who misses a long stretch usually falls out of the race. The October 8 NBC Sports piece reported no preseason injuries among the main contenders. Source

Current Probability

Cameron Boozer

35%

Market-implied probability

  • 24 hours up 2 pts
  • 7 days up 11 pts

Source

Single source

Key facts

Ends
April 30, 2027 188 days left
Volume
8M

Probability History

Outcomes Market-implied probability

  1. Cameron Boozer 35% 24 hours: up 2 pts
  2. Caleb Wilson 21% 24 hours: up 1 pts
  3. Darryn Peterson 14% 24 hours: down 1 pts
  4. Darius Acuff Jr. 12% 24 hours: down 4 pts
  5. AJ Dybantsa 11% 24 hours: down 4 pts
See all 30
  1. Yaxel Lendeborg 8% 24 hours: up 3 pts
  2. Aday Mara 1% 24 hours: no change
  3. Keaton Wagler 1% 24 hours: no change
  4. Labaron Philon Jr. 1% 24 hours: no change
  5. Sergio De Larrea 1% 24 hours: no change
  6. Mikel Brown Jr. <1% 24 hours: down 1 pts
  7. Brayden Burries <1% 24 hours: no change
  8. Bennett Stirtz <1% 24 hours: no change
  9. Cameron Carr <1% 24 hours: down 1 pts
  10. Kingston Flemings <1% 24 hours: no change
  11. Nate Ament <1% 24 hours: no change
  12. Ebuka Okorie <1% 24 hours: no change
  13. Allen Graves <1% 24 hours: no change
  14. Zuby Ejiofor <1% 24 hours: no change
  15. Alex Karaban <1% 24 hours: no change
  16. Morez Johnson Jr. <1% 24 hours: no change
  17. Christian Anderson <1% 24 hours: no change
  18. Karim López <1% 24 hours: no change
  19. Tarris Reed Jr. <1% 24 hours: no change
  20. Chris Cenac Jr. <1% 24 hours: no change
  21. Joshua Jefferson <1% 24 hours: no change
  22. Koa Peat <1% 24 hours: no change
  23. Hannes Steinbach <1% 24 hours: no change
  24. Dailyn Swain <1% 24 hours: no change
  25. Jayden Quaintance <1% 24 hours: no change

Each option is priced on its own, so these may not add up to 100%.

How It Resolves

This market will resolve to the player who wins the Rookie of the Year award for the 2026-27 NBA regular season.

In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by NBA rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically.

If the 2026-27 NBA regular season is cancelled, postponed after April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from NBA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Resolution source: Polymarket

Expected resolution: April 30, 2027