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Politics

Next Prime Minister of Spain?

Next Prime Minister of Spain? Where the market stands, how it has moved and how this market resolves.

Alberto Núñez Feijóo 93% Market-implied probability up 3 pts

Share

Market Split

61%
  • Alberto Núñez Feijóo61%
  • Other33%
  • All others6%

Each option is priced on its own, so shares are scaled to add up to 100%.

The Market in Brief

Alberto Núñez Feijóo leads at 93%, followed by Other at 50% and Pedro Sánchez at 7%. 21 outcomes are listed in total. The market has 3.2M in volume. It is expected to resolve on November 29, 2026.

This page describes what the market on Polymarket currently implies. It is not a forecast by The Sweat.

Current Probability

Alberto Núñez Feijóo

93%

Market-implied probability

  • 24 hours up 3 pts
  • 7 days up 5 pts

Source

Single source

Key facts

Ends
November 29, 2026 21 days left
Volume
3.2M

Probability History

Outcomes Market-implied probability

  1. Alberto Núñez Feijóo 93% 24 hours: up 3 pts
  2. Other 50% 24 hours: no change
  3. Pedro Sánchez 7% 24 hours: down 3 pts
  4. Santiago Abascal <1% 24 hours: no change
  5. Isabel Díaz Ayuso <1% 24 hours: no change
See all 21
  1. María Jesús Montero <1% 24 hours: no change
  2. Yolanda Díaz <1% 24 hours: no change
  3. Ernest Urtasun <1% 24 hours: no change
  4. Aitor Esteban <1% 24 hours: no change
  5. Miguel Tellado <1% 24 hours: no change
  6. Ester Muñoz <1% 24 hours: no change
  7. Pepa Millán <1% 24 hours: no change
  8. Cuca Gamarra <1% 24 hours: no change
  9. Borja Sémper <1% 24 hours: no change
  10. Carles Puigdemont <1% 24 hours: no change
  11. Carlos Cuerpo <1% 24 hours: no change
  12. Óscar Puente <1% 24 hours: no change
  13. Juanma Moreno <1% 24 hours: no change
  14. Félix Bolaños <1% 24 hours: no change
  15. Emiliano García-Page <1% 24 hours: no change
  16. Salvador Illa <1% 24 hours: no change

Each option is priced on its own, so these may not add up to 100%.

How It Resolves

This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Spain by March 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET.

To count for resolution, the individual must receive a vote of confidence from the Congress of Deputies and be formally sworn-in, resulting in the official formation of a new government. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister who does not receive a parliamentary vote of confidence will not count toward the resolution of this market.

If no such Prime Minister takes office by March 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Spain; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Resolution source: Polymarket

Expected resolution: November 29, 2026