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Politics

Taipei Mayor Election Winner

Taipei Mayor Election Winner. Where the market stands, how it has moved and how this market resolves.

Chiang Wan-an 66% Market-implied probability down 2 pts

Share

Market Split

44%
  • Chiang Wan-an44%
  • Other33%
  • All others23%

Each option is priced on its own, so shares are scaled to add up to 100%.

How the Market Has Moved

  • Nov 3 Chiang Wan-an rose 5 points, from 63% to 68%.
  • Nov 3 Puma Shen fell 5 points, from 37% to 32%.
  • Nov 2 Chiang Wan-an fell 3 points, from 66% to 63%.

The Market in Brief

Chiang Wan-an leads at 66%, followed by Other at 50% and Puma Shen at 35%. 4 outcomes are listed in total. The market has 4.7M in volume. It is expected to resolve on November 28, 2026.

This page describes what the market on Polymarket currently implies. It is not a forecast by The Sweat.

Current Probability

Chiang Wan-an

66%

Market-implied probability

  • 24 hours down 2 pts
  • 7 days down 5 pts

Source

Single source

Key facts

Ends
November 28, 2026 18 days left
Volume
4.7M

Probability History

Outcomes Market-implied probability

  1. Chiang Wan-an 66% 24 hours: down 2 pts
  2. Other 50% 24 hours: no change
  3. Puma Shen 35% 24 hours: up 1 pts
  4. Kuo Hsi <1% 24 hours: no change

Each option is priced on its own, so these may not add up to 100%.

How It Resolves

Taiwanese local elections are scheduled to be held on November 28, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Mayor of Taipei as a result of this election.

Temporary, interim, or placeholder Mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.

If the result of this election isn't known, or no candidate has been elected, by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Taiwanese government, specifically the Central Election Commission (https://db.cec.gov.tw/).

Resolution source: Polymarket

Expected resolution: November 28, 2026